Financial Modelling · Excel

TSMC Three-Statement
Financial Model

An integrated financial model combining operating forecasts, supporting schedules, three-statement integration, DCF valuation, trading comparables and scenario analysis.

Download Excel Explore model
3FS DCF Trading Comps Sensitivity 2021–2030
2030E Revenue $301.8bn from $121.4bn in 2025
2025–30E Revenue CAGR 20.0% base-case forecast
2030E FCFF $112.9bn DCF forecast output
Blended Fair Value / ADS $385.15 weighted valuation output
01

Model architecture

01 Assumptions

Operating drivers, scenarios, valuation and financing inputs.

02 3-Statement Model

Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow linked dynamically.

03 Supporting Schedules

PP&E, working capital and marketable securities rollforwards.

04 Valuation

DCF, trading comparables, sensitivities and blended output.

12 interconnected worksheets · forecast assumptions are centralized in a dedicated assumptions tab.

02

Operating forecast

USD billions

Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue EBITDA
TSMC revenue and EBITDA, 2021 to 2030 Historical figures from 2021 through 2025 and model forecasts from 2026 through 2030. Forecast
Growth

Revenue increases from $121.4bn in 2025 to $301.8bn in 2030E, implying a five-year CAGR of approximately 20%.

Margins

Gross margin reaches 66% in 2026E before normalising toward 59% by 2030E as the base case assumes a gradual moderation.

Cash generation

Forecast FCFF rises from $46.8bn in 2026E to $112.9bn in 2030E, supported by earnings growth despite elevated capital expenditure.

03

Valuation

Blended fair value

$385.15 / ADS

Reference ADS price $426.35 Model data cutoff: 14 August 2026
DCF
$268.13
P/E
$399.84
EV / EBITDA
$684.21
EV / EBIT
$850.42
EV / Sales
$449.17
Price / Book
$389.04

To keep the website presentation comparable, all methodology outputs above are shown on an ADS basis. The Excel model performs the underlying calculations on a common-share basis and converts the final output to ADS.

04

DCF framework

WACC 10.0%
Terminal growth 3.0%
Risk-free rate 4.7%
Equity risk premium 4.3%
Beta 1.26
DCF enterprise value $1.324tn
05

DCF sensitivity

The model tests DCF value across different WACC and terminal-growth assumptions. The compact table below shows a selected 3 × 3 view from the full sensitivity analysis.

USD per common share
WACC \ g 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
9.0% 55.42 62.76 73.04
10.0% 48.32 53.63 60.71
11.0% 42.81 46.80 51.92
06

Inside the model

Preview of the TSMC model valuation summary worksheet
07

What I built

01

Integrated 3FS

Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement linked through a unified forecast framework.

02

Supporting schedules

Dedicated PP&E, working-capital and marketable-securities rollforwards feeding the statements.

03

Scenario framework

Base, Bull and Bear cases controlled from the assumptions sheet through central forecast drivers.

04

Valuation suite

DCF, trading comparables, weighted valuation output and sensitivity analysis in one workbook.

05

Model controls

Balance-sheet checks and iterative cash / interest calculations support model integrity.

06

Documentation

ReadMe and centralized assumptions make the workbook easier to review, navigate and update.

Full workbook

Explore the complete model.

The Excel workbook includes all 12 interconnected worksheets, historical financials, forecasts, supporting schedules, DCF, trading comparables and sensitivities.

Download Excel Model
Data & methodology

Historical financial data is based on TSMC 20-F filings for 2021–2025. Market data in the model is as of 14 August 2026. Forecasts and valuation assumptions reflect my own modelling assumptions.

Disclaimer

This model was created for educational and portfolio purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.